Peramalan Penyebaran Kasus Covid-19 Menggunakan Metode Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) (Studi Kasus : Kabupaten Gresik)

Abstract

Positive cases of COVID-19 in Indonesia continue to increase, making Indonesia a country with a fairly high number of positive cases. For more than a year the pandemic has plagued Indonesia and East Java Province, including areas with a fairly high level of spread. There are several regencies or cities in East Java that are increasing every day, including Gresik Regency. This study aims to predict the spread of positive COVID-19 cases in Gresik Regency using the Autoregressive Integrates Moving Average (ARIMA) method by checking the stationary of the data in variance and average (mean) which is then calculated for accuracy using the MAPE formula by calculating the average percentage from the error in the forecasting process, the ARIMA model (2,2,0) has the smallest MAPE value so that the model is said to be a good model to be used in forecasting. Based on the forecasting results, it was concluded that the number of positive cases of COVID-19 in Gresik Regency for the next 7 days experienced an increase where on the 7th day period it reached 201 cases.