Peramalan Penyebaran Jumlah Kasus Virus Covid-19 di Kota Malang Menggunakan Metode Arima Box Jenkins

Authors

  • Raudhatul Mukallala UIN Sunan Ampel Surabaya
  • Wika Dianita Utami UIN Sunan Ampel Surabaya
  • Hani Khaulasari UIN Sunan Ampel Surabaya

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.29080/algebra.v2i1.89

Keywords:

Covid-19, ARIMA Box-Jenkins, Peramalan

Abstract

The Covid-19 virus is a disease that can cause respiratory problems and inflammation of the lungs. This disease is caused by infection with Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 or abbreviated as SARS-CoV-2 Covid-19. The Covid-19 virus has spread all over the world, including Indonesia. Indonesia, especially the city of Malang, which also affected the spread of this virus. The data is taken from the website infocovid19.jatimprov.go.id, in the form of the number of positive cases of Covid-19 in a day. The spread of Covid-19 virus cases can be predicted using ARIMA Box-Jenkins. The purpose of this study was to obtain the best ARIMA model and forecasting results for the next period. The results showed that the best ARIMA Box-Jenkins model for the spread of the Covid-19 virus in Malang City was the ARIMA model (0.2,1) with the smallest MAPE value. The results of forecasting the spread of the number of positive cases of the Covid-19 virus in Malang City have increased every period and on the 10th day of the next period it reached 118 positive cases of Covid-19.

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Published

2022-03-31

How to Cite

Raudhatul Mukallala, Utami, W. D. ., & Khaulasari, H. . (2022). Peramalan Penyebaran Jumlah Kasus Virus Covid-19 di Kota Malang Menggunakan Metode Arima Box Jenkins . Jurnal Algebra, 3(01), 01–11. https://doi.org/10.29080/algebra.v2i1.89