Forecasting Jumlah Kemiskinan di Kota Tangerang dengan Metode Double Exponential Smoothing Brown

Abstract

Poverty is a complex problem that’s still difficult to solve by every region in Indonesia, including Tangerang City. The total of poor people in Tangerang City has increased or decreased every year. To response this, forecasting is necessary as a reference to eradicate poverty cases in Tangerang City. This study aims to analyze the prediction of the total of poverty in Tangerang City using the Double Exponential Smoothing (DES) method by Brown. This method uses the best parameter α value randomly selected from the range 0 to 1 in the calculation process. Forecasting for 2021 uses data on the total of poverty in Tangerang City from 2009-2020. The error of this method can be found using the MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) method obtained in the process of finding the best α value. In this study, the best forecast is obtained using a value of α 0.1 with a MAPE error of 5.207% and the total of poverty for the year 2021 is 106.399 people.