Analisis Penderita Demam Berdarah Dengan Menggunakan Metode Moving Average dan ARIMA

Abstract

Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever (DHF) is a disease that causes problems for public health, especially in Indonesia. In 2014, West Jakarta Province, Cengkareng Regency, was the area with the highest number of dengue fever cases with 866 people. To predict future cases, forecasting is done. The method used in forecasting is the ARIMA method and moving average using Minitab, R, and SAS software. Prediction results using Minitab and R software show that cases continue to grow every month. While the prediction results using the SAS software show that there are uncertain increases and decreases every month. The comparison method uses a moving average with a MAPE value of 204.09 for the prediction results.