PENERAPAN METODE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING UNTUK PERAMALAN JUMLAH KLAIM DI BPJS KESEHATAN PAMEKASAN
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.15642/mantik.2016.2.1.46-51Keywords:
double exponential smoothing, BPJS kesehatan PamekasanAbstract
Time series model is the model used to predict the future using past data, one example of a time series model is exponential smoothing. Exponential smoothing method is a repair procedure performed continuously at forecasting the most recent data. In this study the exponential smoothing method is applied to predict the number of claims in the health BPJS Pamekasan using data from the period January 2014 to December 2015, the measures used to obtain the output of this research there are four stages, namely 1) the identification of data, 2) Modeling, 3) forecasting, 4) Evaluation of forecasting results with RMSE and MAPE. Based on the research methodology, the result for the period 25 = 833.828, the 26 = 800.256, period 27 = 766.684, a period of 28 = 733.113, period 29 = 699.541, and the period of 30 = 655, 970. Value for RMSE = 98.865 and MAPE = 7.002, In this case the moving average method is also used to compare the results of forecasting with double exponential smoothing method. Forecasting results for the period 25 = 899.208, the 26 = 885, 792, 27 = 872.375 period, a period of 28 = 858.958, period 29 = 845.542, and the period of 30 = 832.125. Value for RMSE = 101.131 and MAPE = 7.756. Both methods together - both have very good performance because the value of MAPE is below 10%, but the method of exponential smoothing has a value of RMSE and MAPE are smaller than the moving average method.Downloads
Download data is not yet available.
Downloads
Published
2016-10-30
How to Cite
Faisol, F., & Aisah, S. (2016). PENERAPAN METODE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING UNTUK PERAMALAN JUMLAH KLAIM DI BPJS KESEHATAN PAMEKASAN. Jurnal Matematika MANTIK, 2(1), 46–51. https://doi.org/10.15642/mantik.2016.2.1.46-51
Issue
Section
Articles
License
Authors who publish with this journal agree to the following terms:
- Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons License that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgment of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgment of its initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g., in institutional repositories or on their website) prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published work