Pemodelan Produksi Tebu Menggunakan Metode Single Moving Average dan Exponential Smoothing Holt-Winters
Keywords:sugarcane production; single moving average; exponential smoothing holt-winters; MAPE
Sugar is one of the basic needs of the people of Indonesia, but the current sugar production has not been able to meet the needs of the people of Indonesia. Jombang Regency is one of the sugarcane production centers in East Java Province, which ranks fourth. This study aims to compare the results of sugarcane forecast in Jombang for the following year. Here using the Single Moving Average and Exponential Smoothing Holt-Winters multiplicative models. The data used are historical data on sugarcane production in the last 12 years calculated from 2008 to 2019. MAPE values are used to measure the accuracy of the model from the lowest MAPE results. Where MAPE is a measure of relative accuracy used to determine the percentage error in forecasting results. Based on the results, sugarcane production forecasting in Jombang with the Single Moving Average method, namely N = 2 and N = 3 obtained the best model with a value of N = 2. with a MAPE value of 23.15%. While using the Exponential Smoothing Holt-Winters Multiplicative model with α = 0.995, β = 0.0001, and γ = 0.099, the MAPE value is 18.19%. So the method with the best model is the Exponential Smoothing Holt-Winters method.